India’s GDP may grow by 9.2% in FY12: First Advance Estimates
– World Affairs SRS
Releasing the first advance estimates of national income for 2021-22, the NSO said, “The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is projected to be 9.2 per cent, as compared to a contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21. ”
“Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 147.54 trillion as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 at Rs 135.13 trillion released on May 31, 2021 The real GVA at basic prices is estimated at Rs 135.22 trillion in 2021-22 as against Rs 124.53 trillion in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent.
Advance estimates are issued to provide numbers to the finance ministry to work on the budget for the next financial year.
The budget takes the nominal GDP announced by the NSO and then assumes the growth rate for FY23 and then derives the fiscal deficit as a percentage of the nominal GDP; Taxes are also calculated on the basis of nominal GDP growth.
Advance estimates have accurately estimated the growth rate of real GDP in three of the last 13 years – 2012-13, 2015-16 and 2016-17. The growth rate was actually higher than the 2009-10 advance estimate, while the second advance estimate in 2017-18 was accurate but the first was not.
A domestic rating agency said on Thursday that the Omicron variant spread will impact GDP by 0.40 per cent in the January-March quarter and reduce FY22 growth by 0.10 per cent, as several states resort to restrictions to limit infections. India Ratings and Research said in a note that restrictions in various forms, such as night/weekend curfews to reduce the capacity of markets/market complexes and to check human mobility/contact, have already begun in many states, which may be affecting economic activities. are affecting.
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